Assessing the Risks of Groundwater Depletion and Seawater Intrusion in the Jifarah Plain Using the Sustainable Groundwater Balance Index

Abstract

The Jifara Plain in northwestern Libya is one of the region's most vital areas, characterised by high population density and intensive agricultural activity. In recent decades, the area has faced critical hydro-climatic crises, most notably a significant decline in groundwater levels. Current reports and studies indicate drops ranging from 0.5 to 2.40 meters, with cumulative declines in some wells reaching as much as 60–70 meters. This research aims to identify the root causes of this phenomenon, categorising them into anthropogenic and natural factors. To achieve this, the researcher employed an innovative mathematical framework—the "Sustainable Groundwater Index Balance Indicator" (SGIBI) model—to assess the severity of hydraulic and chemical risks across eight monitoring wells, based on field-collected samples and subsequent laboratory analysis. The study concludes that excessive and unregulated water extraction—driven by unsustainable agricultural practices and urban expansion—is the primary cause of the problem. This is exacerbated by weak legislative and regulatory frameworks, as well as a lack of sufficient natural groundwater recharge resulting from climate change and erratic rainfall patterns. The research recommends the strict enforcement of laws against the unauthorised drilling of wells, a rapid transition toward smart irrigation systems, and the implementation of managed artificial groundwater recharge using treated wadi (valley) water.